Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
3. Ulusal İnşaat Mühendisliği Sempozyumu, Girne, Kıbrıs (Kktc), 4 - 06 Aralık 2024, ss.1-2, (Özet Bildiri)
This study investigates the impact of extreme emissions on future
precipitation variability in Northern Cyprus, utilizing projections from the
EURO-CORDEX ensemble under the RCP 8.5 scenario. In this context, historical simulations
are compared with observed data through performance metrics to assess model
accuracy. The Quantile Delta Mapping (QDM) bias correction technique is then
applied to refine both historical and projected model simulations for enhancing
their reliability. The analysis reveals significant variability in
precipitation anomalies, with near-future projections indicating substantial
increases in summer precipitation. In contrast, declines in winter and spring
totals are expected in the far future. These findings highlight a potential
shift toward drier conditions during these seasons, underscoring the necessity
for proactive climate adaptation strategies to address the anticipated impacts
of climate change on local water resources.